The trajectory of humanity in the 21st century is uncertain and precarious.
Two separate but interrelated factors will be heavily responsible.
The increasingly competitive dynamic between the United States and China will be critical to future global economic, security, technological, environmental, and political outcomes.
At the same time, all countries face increasing global catastrophic risk – arising from a combination of nuclear and biological weapons, climate and environmental disruptions, dangerous engineered and naturally occurring pathogens, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, and food supply insecurity, among other potentially catastrophic threats.
These two factors – US-China competition and global catastrophic risk – are complex and challenging in their own right. Taken together, a new problem emerges.
US-China competition is increasing the risk of a global catastrophe. In turn, worsening global catastrophic risk feeds a more antagonistic dynamic between the two countries. Breaking this cycle and fostering strategic cooperation on shared interests will be among this century’s greatest challenges.
The US and China need to lead the world on reducing global catastrophic risk. Indeed, this global challenge could be the rallying cry both countries need to bridge their differences and work together for a safer world.
Their common interest in reducing the risk of global catastrophe could then form the positive platform that is needed to improve all aspects of the US-China relationship.
If addressed, it would help set the world on a more peaceful and prosperous path.
