Global Shield Briefing (24 November 2025)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). Our view – unsurprisingly – is that the world is becoming increasingly risky. The risk from climate change, pandemics, weapons of mass destruction, emerging technologies and mother nature is not reducing. Mostly because the political, societal, economic, technological and environmental drivers underpinning them are […]
Global Shield Briefing (15 October 2025)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Attributed to physicist and Nobel laureate, Niels Bohr, as well as to baseball Hall of Fame player and manager, Yogi Berra (though first stated by Danish politician and a founder of Denmark’s social democracy, Karl Kristian […]
Global Shield Briefing (1 August 2025)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). Risk can often be quite abstract. Instead, consider scenarios. In the UN Global Risk Report, covered in the first section, four scenarios are presented, with the “breakdown” scenario painting an eery, if familiar, vignette: “In an increasingly fragmented world, the multilateral system is under […]
Global Shield Briefing (4 June 2025)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). When it comes to national resilience and preparedness, there’s a term that gets easily thrown around but is wildly complex: ‘whole-of-society’. The reality of 21st-century risk, and modern civilization, is that responding to a national crisis is not contained to the cabinet room and […]
Global Shield Briefing (18 March 2025)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). Why now? Global catastrophic risk is seemingly rising faster than ever. Tipping points might be fast approaching. Not just climate disruptions, but also ecological collapse, severe bacterial and fungal infectious diseases, an intelligence explosion, poisoned information ecology, political polarization, economic fragility, tensions between nuclear-armed […]
Global Shield Briefing (18 February 2025)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). Benjamin Franklin’s contributions are innumerable. Across science, politics, diplomacy and writing. His mark is still felt. So you’d be forgiven for overlooking an early achievement: successfully advocating for fire safety. Early 18th century Philadelphia, with its narrow streets, densely packed wooden buildings and open […]
Global Shield Briefing (2024 holiday special)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). When it comes to worst-case scenarios, four big threats tend to dominate the discussion: nuclear war, climate change, pandemics and artificial intelligence. Once in a while, someone in the back raises their hand to call out threats from above, like asteroids. Other times, volcanologists […]
Global Shield Special Briefing: A preliminary government assessment of global catastrophic risk
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). On 30 October, the RAND Corporation released an assessment of existential and global catastrophic risk. It is an extensive and lengthy treatment of six catastrophic threats: nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroid or comet impacts, and supervolcanoes. This report is particularly important […]
Global Shield Briefing (23 October 2024)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). A Trojan princess, blessed with the gift of prophecy, has her true warnings unheeded, to the downfall of her city. A shepherd boy, restless with boredom, has his false warnings heeded, to the downfall of his herd. Cassandra and The Boy Who Cried Wolf […]
Global Shield Briefing (2 October 2024)
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR). Homo sapiens became a formidable species not only due its ability to learn and adapt. It was due to its ability to transfer that knowledge from generation to generation. Individual intelligence became collective memory. Through oral stories, and later, the written word, our ancestors […]